Stocks hit an all-time intraday high above 91,300 points, mostly banking on the speculations of a substantial downward revision in policy rate by the central bank in the first week of November with macroeconomic outlook largely remaining positive.
Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 shares index gained 1,163 points to hit 91,358.15 points against the previous close of 90,195.51 points.
Index-heavy stocks, including Habib Bank Limited (HBL), MCB Bank Limited (MCB), Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), Pakistan State Oil (PSO), Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL), and Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC), took the centre stage today.
Commenting on the extended rally, Samiullah Tariq, a senior analyst at Arif Habib Limited, attributed the surge to robust corporate results, improved payouts, falling yields, and expectations of further policy rate cuts in the central bank’s upcoming meeting.
The market is alive with speculation about a significant easing of the monetary policy stance on November 4, while strong corporate earnings are fueling buying interest across sectors like auto, cement, banking, energy, and power generation.
In its previous meeting, the SBP’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced its most significant rate cut since April 2020, decreasing the key policy rate by 200bps to 17.5% due to moderating inflation and falling international oil prices. The central bank slashed the policy rate by 350bps in July and September 2024, resulting in a cumulative reduction of 450bps since June 2024.
If reduced then it would mark the fourth consecutive rate cut since the SBP began reversing interest rates in June 2024, signalling a notable improvement in the country’s macroeconomic outlook and a shift in the central bank’s monetary policy stance.
Speculations of a policy rate cut of up to 400bps by December are doing rounds of the market, as according to analysts the room for easing exists, which has also rekindled foreign investors’ interest in the country’s capital market.
Inflation dropped to 6.9% year-on-year in September 2024, the lowest since January 2021, down from 9.6% in August, driven by the high base effect, easing commodity and energy markets, and a stable currency, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
