Pakistan needs to promote a culture of research on climate change to shield its agriculture from the adverse effects of extreme weather events, ensuring food security and sustainable livelihoods for its farmers.
The country can better equip its agricultural sector to withstand the impacts of climate change by not only investing in innovative agricultural practices but also enhancing its adaptive capacity and collaborating with local and international research institutions. More importantly, the farming community needs to be supported and facilitated.
For the first time in many years, we have witnessed a dry spell from November until now. Even rain-fed areas have received no precipitation, which could significantly reduce wheat production. The situation is alarming, given that wheat is our primary food security crop.
Over the past two years, the authorities in Pakistan have done little to address climate change. Last year, the wheat crisis was so severe that 24 women lost their lives while waiting in queues to get subsidized flour amid scarcity of the major food staple. Still, we failed to learn any lesson.
Climate change cannot be tackled through negligence. India has faced similar weather conditions, yet its crop yields have remained stable. Meanwhile, Pakistan has seen a 40 to 60 percent decline in wheat, cotton, sesame, mango, and citrus production. According to Khalid Khokhar, president of the Farmers’ Association, cotton production has dropped 40 percent compared to last year. If we compare it to historical levels, the production has shrunk to a mere third of what it used to be.
The primary reason for this decline is the absence of an agricultural research culture in Pakistan. Our agricultural research budget is mere 0.18 percent of the sector’s GDP. In contrast, Brazil has excelled in agriculture because it allocates 1.75 percent of its agricultural GDP to research.
The biggest challenges we face right now are seed quality and climate change. No country in the world plants cotton in such hot conditions as we do. There is no zoning in Pakistan. Previously, rice cultivation was limited to just 11 districts of Punjab, but now it is being grown across the province. In the 1960s, a commission led by Nawab of Kalabagh recommended that no sugar mills be established between Pattoki and Rahim Yar Khan, as the region was best suited for cotton. However, today, there is a mushroom growth of sugar mills in the region.
To counter climate change, we need investment in agricultural research. The sector contributes Rs 20 trillion to 25 trillion to the economy, yet our investment in research and marketing is negligible. Another key measure is balanced fertilizer usage. Our farmers cannot maintain this balance because they do not have equitable access to fertilizers.
A stark contrast can be seen in India. There, a bag of urea costs just Rs 1,000 (in Pakistani currency), while in Pakistan, the same bag costs Rs 4,500. Similarly, Indian farmers buy diammonium phosphate (DAP) fertilizer for Rs 4,000 per bag, while Pakistani farmers pay Rs 12,000 for it. Indian farmers also get free electricity, whereas Pakistani farmers struggle with heavy power bills.
The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has issued an advisory warning of potential drought, but the reality is that we are already suffering from it. Rising temperatures have depleted our soil’s organic matter.
Another example of inefficiency is the textile industry. Pakistan produces cotton, but our textile exports stand at $17 billion. Meanwhile, Bangladesh, which does not grow cotton, exports textiles worth $48 billion. The same applies to IT and industrial growth — we lag far behind, leaving agriculture as our only major sector.
Last year, agriculture’s growth rate was 6 percent, but this year, the sector has been stifled. We do not offer support prices to farmers. A Pakistani farmer who sowed wheat in 2024 and will harvest it this year has no idea what price he will get for his crop. In contrast, Indian farmers have already been informed of the prices for their 2025 and even 2026 wheat harvests. This allows them to plan their expenses and incomes.
Besides tackling climate change, we must also conserve water. Exporting rice and sugarcane is actually exporting water. Instead, we should focus on water-efficient crops. Rather than maize, we should cultivate early cotton, which requires less water and fetches better prices in international markets. By clearing fields in August, we could also plant another crop, maximizing productivity.
Pakistan cannot afford to keep ignoring the impact of climate change on agriculture. Without urgent reforms, research investment, and policy changes, our food security and economic stability will remain at risk.
